How to Make a Profit Playing Spin & Gos: A Statistical Deep Dive

They all went mobile and invented Multi-Entry Tournaments or Multi-Day Re-Entry Tournaments5Spin & Gos went live on PokerStars just one year ago but their impact on the poker economy has been industry-changing. Hundreds of thousands of players have tried them, multiple people have become millionaires and an estimated 20% of PokerStars’ revenue comes from them.PokerStars weren’t even the first to offer Spin & Gos. iPoker actually ran Jackpot Sit and Gos well before PokerStars did, but as has happened so often in the online poker business PokerStars stole the show and cemented its leading position with its version.Yep, Spin & Gos in fact ARE the New Big Thing. Let’s take a closer look.In case you’re in the minority and have yet to try a Spin & Go out, here’s a quick rundown.

They are 3 players per tournament  홀덤 with a buy-in between $1 and $100. The structure is a hyper-turbo (on average 7 minutes per tourney) and the winner takes all.The kicker: Before the actual tourney starts the prize pool is chosen randomly – it can be anywhere between doublethe buy-in and 3,600 times the buy-in.

For example: If you play a $15 Spin & Go you can “spin” a prize pool of up to $54,000. Sweet, huh? One tiny problem though: it’s very unlikely to hit one of those insanely high multipliers.The 3,600-multiplier will only hit with a probability of one in 100,000. Here’s a breakdown of all multipliers, prize pools and probabilities for the $15 Spin & Gos:It’s easy to see that hitting any of the big multipliers (120x or more) is rather unlikely. On average you’ll hit one of them once every 6,250 tourneys.Most of the time you’ll just play for twice the buy-in. Every now and then you’ll hit the 4x or 6x multipliers. But everything else is a long shot.So are they even profitable? Is it worthwhile to play those tourneys or are they just a big lottery?

Before looking at the profitability of Spin & Gos let’s look at the rake. Because ultimately the profitability of every multi-player game is tied to the amount the house keeps for itself – high rake, low profitability; low rake, (potentially) high profitability.With the help of the payout and probability tables it’s easy to calculate how much money goes to PokerStars on average. Here’s the effective rake for all Spin & Go buy-ins:For the cheapest tourney PokerStars keeps on average 7.5%. It’s still 5.3% for the more expensive Spin & Gos.Considering we’re talking about hyper-turbo tourneys that last on average seven minutes, those are some expensive rates!

PokerStars$30 freeSo far we have lottery-like prize pools and substantial rake – it doesn’t look like Spin & Gos can be profitable.When these tourneys were introduced it was generally accepted that it’s virtually impossible to “beat” them long-term. They’re just for recreational players that want to hit jackpots.

In the beginning of this year a player called Bighusla stepped forward and offered an online poker challenge: He proposed to play 5,000 $30 Spin & Gos while making a substantial profit.He got plenty of takers because it was thought it couldn’t be done. He played 5,054 Spin & Gos, never hit any of the big multipliers, yet still managed to show a return on investment (ROI) of more than 8% per tourney.That’s before any rakeback or cashback through the PokerStars VIP program. This is what his run looked like:Other professional online poker tournament players also tried their luck andmany of them had moderate-to-substantial success over a large sample size.By now Spin & Gos are considered a valid option to make money on PokerStars and a way to pass time while still playing with an edge.